Early Industry Leaders

Name	Stocks	NH	Pct
Auto Parts Stores	5	2	40
Home Improvement Stores	5	2	40
Specialty Eateries	4	1	25
Beverages - Brewers	9	2	22.22
Department Stores	9	2	22.22
Discount, Variety Stores	11	2	18.18
Basic Materials Wholesale	6	1	16.67
Recreational Vehicles	6	1	16.67
Sporting Activities	6	1	16.67
Housewares & Accessories	7	1	14.29
Apparel Stores	46	6	13.04
Consumer Services	8	1	12.5
General Entertainment	8	1	12.5
REIT - Residential	26	3	11.54
Drug Stores	9	1	11.11
Drug Related Products	10	1	10
Telecom Services - Domestic	20	2	10
Gas Utilities	33	3	9.09
Movie Production, Theaters	11	1	9.09
Healthcare Information Services	12	1	8.33
Medical Laboratories & Research	24	2	8.33
Personal Services	13	1	7.69
Broadcasting - TV	14	1	7.14
Food - Major Diversified	14	1	7.14

Here are the early industry leaders in percentage of stocks making new highs

Today's Pivot Points

Floor		Woodie's		Camarilla		Demark
R3	1368.32	R2	1362.09	R4	1358.82	High	1353.64
R2	1361.48	R1	1358.26	R3	1355.73	Low	1342.38
R1	1357.06	P	1350.83	R2	1354.69
P	1350.22	S1	1347	R1	1353.66
S1	1345.8	S2	1339.57	S1	1351.6
S2	1338.96			S2	1350.57
S3	1334.54			S3	1349.53
				S4	1346.44

Thursday Morning Update

I am no longer in Ben Bernanke's rollodex (I think it was photoshopping his face on Che Guevara's picture that ticked him off), so I don't know what he leaked yesterday, but it sure has juiced the market. What really bothers me is that a mere 1% drop was enough to cause TPTB to panic and intervene in the market, something that, in 2008, eventually resulted in the epic crash. I listen to Gary Kaltbaum's radio show, mainly because he talks about the same style of trading that I do, which is informative but boring as hell, but also because, on rare occasions, he nails Bernanke to the wall. Yesterday's show he spent the entire first half of the show ranting about Bernanke interfering with the market, it was music to my ears. Be sure to download the podcast (Wednesday's show).  Anyway, here are the leading sectors so far: XLV and XLB, and bringing up the rear are XLU and XLE. The Nasdaq is about even, the Russell 2000 lagging a bit. Oil and gold are up, treasury yields up but not by much.

I have 85 new highs so far, with breakouts in SMTX, HOTT, TEAR, CYAN, FLY, and SBUX. I have one report from last night, FTK up 8.4%. Reporting this morning: FLL up 0.3%, TCAP up 1%. AFFY and ZUMZ are reporting after the close.

Price Relative Scans

Here is the price relative scan for Wednesday: no 200 day or 100 day breakouts, 2 50 day breakouts (Finviz screen here), and 12 20 day breakouts (here).

Wednesday New Highs

There were 70 new highs today, here is the list.

These are the top 10 industries on percentage of stocks making new highs:

Name	Stocks	NH	Pct
Auto Parts Stores	5	2	40
Music & Video Stores	3	1	33.33
Specialty Eateries	4	1	25
Home Improvement Stores	5	1	20
Movie Production, Theaters	11	2	18.18
Basic Materials Wholesale	6	1	16.67
Recreational Vehicles	6	1	16.67
Food Wholesale	7	1	14.29
Housewares & Accessories	7	1	14.29
Sporting Goods Stores	8	1	12.5

These are the high volume advancers and decliners from the relative strength list:

Advancers				Decliners
Ticker	Relative Volume	Change		Ticker	Relative Volume	Change
MTGE	3.5	3.52%		MAKO	3.12	-2.49%
AEO	3.04	6.22%		XPO	2.88	-8.41%
CLNE	2	5.71%		TIVO	1.67	-0.90%
AAPL	1.87	0.08%		BVSN	1.61	-8.25%
PXP	1.58	0.23%
LEN	1.5	5.64%

Afterthe close I have one report, FTK, up 6% in after hours trading.

Intervention Already?

It didn't take long: the market took a 1% dive and there is already talk about a Fed intervention. That resulted in a bounce today, but on the chart it doesn't look like it will last that long. It appears that we now have a valid sell signal on the Elder impulse chart, and are very likely to do some corrective work here. We bounced off the mid point of our most recent trading range yesterday, and while it is conceivable we could retest the high at 1378, right now it looks pretty doubtful. A test of the 50dma is much more likely, and it is possible we could go as low as the 200dma, which is just now starting to rise. CMF is now in a steady decline, and it looks like the dip buyers have not shown up yet.

The Nasdaq is in slightly better shape but still has a valid sell signal and a declining CMF. I suspect a trip to the 50dma is in the cards for this as well.

Last week the Russell 2000 flashed a third sell signal in a month, and this one was the charm. It has now tested the 50dma successfully the first time, but I expect another test soon, and the next one might not be so successful.

Ticker	Relative Strength Index (14)
XLK	63.13
XLY	62.54
XLP	60.01
XLF	53.54
XLU	49.53
XLE	48.48
XLV	48.19
XLI	44.88
XLB	38.81

Here are the sectorss ranked by RSI. XLK has been leading for several weeks now, but we are seeing some changes in the works. XLU has moved up, which is probably a warning of coming market weakness.

 Had it not been for yesterday, XLK would have an extremely strong chart. It is still pretty strong as it is, and really shows no signs of big selling. If this can stay as strong as it is now, any correction in the market will be short and shallow.

XLB hgas now slid into last place. This peaked, in price relative, on the 1st of February, and went into a long slide. CMF peaked almost 3 weeks before that. It is pretty clear that the big money is bailing out of this.

I have no idea what the current IBD market status is (they didn't say on yesterday's video, and I have not seen today's paper), but at best I would say "market under pressure". Some parts of the market have already entered a correction, and the other parts will probably follow. So far I'm not looking for a really big one, since the Fed is already hinting at intervention.

I will have the new highs update shortly.

DISH

DISH broke out of a really nice setup today, with the only real weakness being a descending price relative line during the base. I don't know for sure, but I am starting to suspect that when you see a lot of weaker stocks breaking out, it means the move up in the market is coming to an end.  Other than that there is not much to complain about here, but is the market is going into a correction, this is going to have a tough time going higher.

AMTG

While most of the stocks we have been looking at bottomed in October of last year (and some even before that), one of today's breakouts, AMTG, didn't bottom until November. With it at a new high today, that must mean it really went on a tear since then, right? Not really, the price relative line is pretty unimpressive. I looked up it's price relative score, and , not including the last 3 days, it has a total score of 34, not very good, a new highs score of 0, and an advancing score of 34, which puts it in the upper half of a 5000 stock database. Not really an attention grabber.

Today's Leading Industry

Here are the industries that have 90% or more of their stocks advancing today.

 Here are the industries with 10% or more of their stocks making new highs.

 There isn't much doubt about recreational vehicles being a leading industry, at least since January. There are only 6 stocks in this group, but nearly all of them were at or near new highs until just recently.

 Here are the charts for the stocks. All but ACAT are now in pullback mode, and several look like pretty bullish setups coming. This is a group to be watching for the next few weeks.

Market Leadership

Ticker	50-Day Simple Moving Average	52-Week High	Relative Strength Index (14)	Change	Change from Open	Gap	Relative Volume
AAPL	15.68%	-2.52%	71.54	0.78%	-0.44%	1.23%	1.34
TNH	13.56%	-9.03%	55.84	5.72%	3.23%	2.41%	1.34
CF	2.50%	-9.33%	48.02	4.90%	2.88%	1.96%	1.31
MHS	8.37%	-3.08%	61.35	2.03%	1.84%	0.18%	1.16
LULU	11.41%	-4.75%	59.88	2.98%	-0.56%	3.56%	0.85
TCAP	1.66%	-2.77%	54.74	2.45%	1.76%	0.68%	0.82
CRUS	12.96%	-7.00%	61.63	3.45%	1.71%	1.72%	0.81
MELI	4.89%	-9.38%	50.23	1.77%	-0.76%	2.56%	0.71
CBOU	2.32%	-10.75%	48.93	0.61%	0.30%	0.30%	0.6
FTNT	11.78%	-7.06%	56.92	3.53%	2.91%	0.60%	0.59
RGR	5.75%	-10.28%	50.85	0.14%	0.62%	-0.48%	0.54
SWI	11.27%	-7.45%	54.49	0.66%	0.52%	0.14%	0.48
CMG	6.69%	-1.66%	64.42	0.71%	0.15%	0.56%	0.45
ATW	2.51%	-6.92%	47.56	1.36%	1.29%	0.07%	0.36
PRGO	7.67%	-3.30%	66.76	1.59%	0.85%	0.74%	0.35
CSTR	18.25%	-3.17%	66.08	0.76%	0.51%	0.25%	0.3

A couple of things become apparent looking at the leaders: one is that the stocks getting the most whacked recently are getting the biggest bounces (TNH and CF in particular); and we are not getting much volume on the way up. This is so far looking like a classic dead cat bounce, and it may be due to frustrated shorts finally grinding out a small profit and taking it. There are no new highs, but most of the charts, despite some damage yesterday, still look pretty good.

Here is a link to the charts.

Early Industry Leaders

Name	Stocks	NH	Pct
Music & Video Stores	3	1	33.33
Auto Parts Stores	5	1	20
Movie Production, Theaters	11	2	18.18
Basic Materials Wholesale	6	1	16.67
Food Wholesale	7	1	14.29
Sporting Goods Stores	8	1	12.5
Electronics Wholesale	15	1	6.67
Agricultural Chemicals	16	1	6.25
CATV Systems	18	1	5.56
REIT - Diversified	36	2	5.56
Conglomerates	20	1	5
Telecom Services - Domestic	20	1	5
General Building Materials	24	1	4.17
REIT - Residential	26	1	3.85
Rental & Leasing Services	26	1	3.85
Life Insurance	28	1	3.57
Gas Utilities	33	1	3.03
Credit Services	34	1	2.94
Specialty Retail, Other	34	1	2.94
Apparel Stores	46	1	2.17
Regional - Midwest Banks	53	1	1.89
Scientific & Technical Instruments	58	1	1.72
Medical Instruments & Supplies	68	1	1.47
Biotechnology	174	2	1.15
Business Services	102	1	0.98

Here are the early industry leaders in percentage of stocks making new highs.

Today's Pivot Points

Floor		Woodie's		Camarilla		Demark
R3	1381.58	R2	1371.2	R4	1356.34	High	1353.5
R2	1372.61	R1	1355.16	R3	1349.85	Low	1329.9
R1	1357.98	P	1347.6	R2	1347.69
P	1349.01	S1	1331.56	R1	1345.52
S1	1334.38	S2	1324	S1	1341.2
S2	1325.41			S2	1339.03
S3	1310.78			S3	1336.87
				S4	1330.38

Wednesday Morning Update

We were due for a big drop, and we got it yesterday, but volume was not quite as high as I expected, which is probably a good thing, although so far the bounce we are getting is pretty weak.Yesterday's low was down around 1340, and I'm guessing the first resistance level we see should be at 1354, putting 1348 in the middle. So far, the market seems reluctant to go above 1348, and we probably have some work to do down here before making a move up. Any move higher will, until proven otherwise, become a selling opportunity. I have not seen IBD's market wrap video from last night yet, so I don't know what the market status is (I will watch it later this morning so you don't have to), but I am treating it as if the market is in a correction. We have 3 sectors leading today: XLF, XLI, and XLK. Lagging are XLU and XLP. Both the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 have pretty good leads. I have oil down, gold up, and treasury yields up.

I have 24 new highs so far, with breakouts in AMTG, GCA, ALOG, CKEC, and DISH. I have 2 reports from last night: MAKO down 1% and HTCO up 0.4%, and 2 this morning: AEO up 5.6% and
AVAV down 2.9%.

Price Relative Scans

Here is the price relative scan for Tuesday: no 200 day breakouts, no 100 day breakouts, 3 50 day breakouts (Finviz screen here), and 8 20 day breakouts (here).

Tuesday New Highs

There were 40 new highs today, here is the list.

These are the top 10 industries in percentage of stocks making new highs:

Name	Stocks	NH	Pct
Cigarettes	7	2	28.57
Auto Parts Stores	5	1	20
Conglomerates	20	3	15
Food Wholesale	7	1	14.29
Housewares & Accessories	7	1	14.29
Toys & Games	7	1	14.29
General Entertainment	8	1	12.5
Sporting Goods Stores	8	1	12.5
REIT - Residential	26	3	11.54
Recreational Goods, Other	11	1	9.09

These are the high volume advancers and decliners from the relative strength list.

Advancers				Decliners
Ticker	Relative Volume	Change		Ticker	Relative Volume	Change
MTGE	3.68	3.18%		JAZZ	4.34	-5.08%
MITK	2.23	4.84%		BVSN	3.64	-14.02%
SANW	1.53	4.31%		AKRX	2.75	-10.53%
				XPO	2.4	-3.32%
				FSM	2.39	-3.85%
				MOH	2.09	-1.81%
				FIRE	1.99	-7.51%
				AAPL	1.94	-0.54%
				VVUS	1.89	-1.15%
				WPRT	1.86	-2.90%
				TNH	1.75	-6.48%
				CLNE	1.69	-0.98%
				CF	1.67	-5.06%
				CAB	1.66	-1.59%
				TCAP	1.51	-1.29%

After theclose I have reports from MAKO, up 0.4%  after hours, and HTCO, and HTCO, not trading. Here is the revised earnings schedule, most have been confirmed.

Sellers Show Up

A week ago we had virtually nothing in the way of distribution, but racked up 3 more distribution days in the last 5, showing how quickly things change. While we are still well above the 50dma, I would not be surprised to see IBD call a correction after today. Even if they don't, today was probably a good time to get out of anything that didn't get stopped out. I think a trip to as low as 1292 is a pretty good possibility, and iif it stops there, will still be a bullish development.  

 Crude oil took a big hit today, but this is also still in the upper half of it's trading range. A hold here will probably send this back up to retest 110, but ultimately this will probably get up to about 117. However, it has to contend with some downward momentum first.

A week ago I was pretty bullish on gold, and it responded with two huge drops. The right side of the base is now history, this will have to do it again, and at this point I don;t think the 200dema will be much help here. On the bright side, the lower it goes, the better, because ultimately this is almost a sure bet to go higher. 

This just beats me. I have no idea what is going through the minds of bond traders right now.

Once again I have an un-updated US dollar chart. While I haven't looked at the UUP chart, I can probably safely say this was up today, in fact, probably up pretty big. This held the 200dema very nicely and is getting a pretty strong bounce off it, so this move may have some legs.

It took only a matter of days to rack up enough distribution to cause a correction. While I have no idea how severe this one will be, or how long it lasts, this does not look like a dip buyer's dream. Best case is a few weeks of bouncing around the moving averages, followed by another bull move up. Worst case: the bull market is over, and we are headed lower, much lower.

I will have the new highs update shortly. 

Today's Leading Industry

 Here are the industries with 25% or more of their stocks advancing today.

 Here are the industries with 10% or more of their stocks making new highs.

I was hoping we would see some strong industries stick out on a day like today, but it doesn't look like that it happening. About the only one is cigarettes, but none of them are advancing today. The only group on both lists is toys and games, a 7 stock group, which has a couple that probably belong in another group (they make gambling equipment). The are only two strong stocks in the group, MAT and LF, the rest are horribly weak.  I don't expect much out of this group, in fact it may be fertile ground for some shorts.

Market Leadership

Ticker	50-Day Simple Moving Average	52-Week High	Relative Strength Index (14)	Change	Change from Open	Gap	Volume	Relative Volume
AAPL	15.03%	-3.63%	68.4	-0.91%	0.90%	-1.79%	22324292	2.42
TNH	9.29%	-12.97%	49.96	-5.41%	-2.49%	-2.99%	81441	1.88
CF	-1.51%	-13.19%	39.98	-4.65%	-2.58%	-2.12%	2115899	1.75
TCAP	-0.45%	-4.84%	44.5	-1.03%	-0.26%	-0.77%	228726	1.47
MELI	2.48%	-11.68%	45.18	-5.37%	-3.82%	-1.61%	503151	1.43
CMG	6.30%	-2.30%	61.29	-1.39%	-0.23%	-1.17%	370955	1.25
SWI	10.75%	-8.30%	52.36	-2.98%	-1.59%	-1.41%	822577	1.18
CRUS	10.00%	-10.02%	56.26	-2.89%	-0.09%	-2.80%	1611543	1.11
LULU	8.75%	-7.63%	54.24	-4.16%	-1.82%	-2.38%	1715205	1.07
MHS	6.40%	-5.15%	56.69	-1.92%	-0.97%	-0.96%	3177105	1.06
ATW	1.50%	-8.06%	44.71	-3.85%	-2.07%	-1.82%	388985	0.88
RGR	5.95%	-10.45%	50.3	-1.25%	0.17%	-1.42%	122088	0.86
CBOU	1.68%	-11.61%	46	-2.66%	-1.79%	-0.89%	98559	0.61
FTNT	8.60%	-10.12%	51.28	-2.22%	-0.51%	-1.71%	819487	0.56
CSTR	17.59%	-4.28%	62.63	-1.94%	-0.66%	-1.29%	513401	0.53
PRGO	5.60%	-5.18%	62.44	-2.48%	-1.44%	-1.06%	428479	0.51

Every leader is down today, but fortunately volume is not as high as yesterday. AAPL is getting the highest volume but has actually reversed a gap down. TNH and CF are again getting hit very hard, as is MELI. CMG had been going up on light volume, but is now getting heavier volume on the way down. It appears that we are now entering a correction.

Here is a link to the charts.