Price Relative Scans

Here is the price relative scan for Tuesday: no 200 day breakouts, no 100 day breakouts, 2 50 day breakouts (Finviz screen here), and 5 20 day breakouts (here).

Tuesday New Highs

There were 146 new highs today, here is the list.

These are the top 10 industries in percentage of stocks making new highs:

Name	Stocks	NH	Pct
Foreign Utilities	3	2	66.67
Auto Parts Stores	5	3	60
Personal Computers	2	1	50
Office Supplies	4	1	25
Specialty Eateries	4	1	25
Health Care Plans	17	4	23.53
Home Furnishings & Fixtures	18	3	16.67
Sporting Activities	6	1	16.67
REIT - Diversified	37	6	16.22
Food Wholesale	7	1	14.29
Gaming Activities	7	1	14.29
Toys & Games	7	1	14.29

These are the high volume advancers and decliners from the relative strength list:

Ticker	Relative Volume	Change		Ticker	Relative Volume	Change
CALL	3.14	12.14%		MTH	5.92	-10.90%
WPRT	3	9.53%		BIRT	4.26	-7.40%
LNG	2.05	0.71%		CFX	2.82	-1.43%
SAFM	1.86	0.83%		DCT	2.17	-0.18%
MOH	1.54	1.90%		ARIA	2.07	-0.74%
				ACAT	1.98	-0.50%
				JCP	1.84	-0.62%
				AGP	1.71	-1.43%
				TNH	1.53	-0.42%
				LSI	1.5	-1.05%

After the close I have reports from STX, up 5% in after hours trading, and KEYN, down 1%.

Onward To February

Today was a near mirror image of yesterday - this time a strong morning and a weak afternoon. That is unlikely to change the big picture, which is a pullback in a bullish chart pattern. We did get higher volume today, but did not get the decline necessary for a distribution day (at least, I don't think so. IBD says we have 3 distribution days on the SPX, but I don't see any after December). The momentum indicators (RSI and MACD) are rolling over, but it looks like we are just working off mild overbought conditions. Until proven otherwise, this is the time to be preparing for the next leg up.
 

WTI is still consolidating along the 50dma as it has been for the last couple of weeks. The mid point of the trading range it is in is about 97.50, and as long as it can stay above that, I remain bullish here.

 I have been trying to be bearish about gold, but it is now pretty clearly building the right side of a long base. It is now a little extended and could pull back at any time, but overall I would say the trend is up. When gold rallies like this, I get the feeling something is coming, and it could be quite unpleasant.

 If the gold bugs are nervous about something, the bond guys are in a near panic. I have been trying to make sense of this chart for months, and just can't fathom what these guys are thinking. I would say it's a safe bet these guys aren't nearly as optimistic as stock traders, and they are rarely wrong.

UUP was up marginally today, and the dollar might have been as well, but the two charts are very different. This looks like it's a sure bet to hit the 200dma, which would have sent the market rallying in the near past, but the correlation is very weak now.

So far we are looking at a very mild pullback in a pretty strong up trend in the market. An up trend that has lots of warts, particularly in the lack of leadership. This pullback may give an opportunity for some big leaders to emerge, and I will be watching closely for that.

I will have the new highs update shortly.

MAT

I  picked up 3 more breakouts today in the Market Watch game (and got stopped out of one I already had), but now that I'm taking a closer look at the charts I'm getting a little buyer's remorse. One thing I don't like to see in earnings breakouts is a pre-earnings breakout like MAT had last week. Another thing I don't like to see is a weak price relative line. One thing I do like is today's volume, and a nice gap up over any possible resistance.  I may be adding to this on any pullbacks, assuming they are just pullbacks.

TGI

TGI looked pretty good as a breakout this morning, but looking at this chart it isn't that impressive. The price relative line is pretty weak, and it's hard to tell exactly where the breakout point is. This one ought to have a stop right below the 50dma, but if it fails it might be a good idea to dump it before then.

GRA

I have GRA hitting a new high in price relative 10 of the last 11 days (that is all the data I have, it's been doing that for longer than 10 days), but it didn;t hit a 52 week high in price until today. It would hve been nice to get this one the breakout in December, but at that time there was nothing unusual about this stock. It has pretty clearly been accumulated for about the last month, and while it looks extended here, it is likely to go higher.

Today's Leading Industry

Here are the industries with 70% or more of their stocks advancing today.

 Here are the industries with 15% or more of their stokcs mnaking new highs.

Most of the groups with high amounts of stocks advancing are small groups, with the exception of health care plans, a former leading group that is still in the top 10 in 40 week average. These stocks all crashed last July-August, most bottomed out on October, and several have come back to nearly where they were before the crash. This will likely become a leading industry again very soon.

Market Leadership

Ticker	50-Day Simple Moving Average	52-Week High	Relative Strength Index (14)	Change	Change from Open	Gap	Relative Volume
AGP	12.71%	-9.90%	58.12	-1.10%	-1.79%	0.70%	1.22
CF	15.89%	-8.05%	63.31	-0.16%	-1.78%	1.65%	0.97
BWLD	2.49%	-6.07%	52.42	1.64%	0.73%	0.91%	0.86
NANO	14.90%	-5.61%	71.98	2.11%	1.14%	0.95%	0.75
HITK	-0.20%	-13.41%	49.54	-1.73%	-1.78%	0.05%	0.72
CMG	9.13%	-1.01%	71.04	-0.30%	-0.76%	0.47%	0.52
CBOU	18.79%	-2.99%	69	-1.00%	-1.46%	0.47%	0.52
FFIV	9.03%	-7.98%	60.62	-0.46%	-1.22%	0.77%	0.52
NVLS	19.05%	-3.68%	67.43	0.92%	0.13%	0.79%	0.49
ULTA	10.25%	-2.74%	64.83	0.25%	-0.12%	0.36%	0.42
MELI	2.20%	-8.57%	53.13	-0.82%	-1.99%	1.19%	0.39

We have a lot of reversals of gap ups on the leadership list today, but fortunately on low volume. Only AGP is getting higher than average volume and it isn't down by much. Several of these are now forming handles on bases, so we may be seeing some break out in the coming days and weeks. CMG and NVLS are scheduled to report this week. There are no new highs.

Here is a link to the charts.

Breakouts

Here are the top 6 relative volume breakouts. GRA has hit a new high in price relative 10 out of the last 11 days.

Early Industry Leaders

Name	Stocks	NH	Pct
Foreign Utilities	3	2	66.67
Auto Parts Stores	5	3	60
Personal Computers	2	1	50
Office Supplies	4	1	25
Specialty Eateries	4	1	25
Health Care Plans	17	4	23.53
Sporting Activities	6	1	16.67
Food Wholesale	7	1	14.29
Gaming Activities	7	1	14.29
Toys & Games	7	1	14.29
REIT - Diversified	37	5	13.51
Agricultural Chemicals	15	2	13.33
REIT - Industrial	15	2	13.33
General Entertainment	8	1	12.5
Machine Tools & Accessories	8	1	12.5
Small Tools & Accessories	8	1	12.5
Home Furnishings & Fixtures	18	2	11.11
Pollution & Treatment Controls	10	1	10
Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing	31	3	9.68
REIT - Healthcare Facilities	11	1	9.09
Textile - Apparel Footwear & Accessories	22	2	9.09
Auto Dealerships	12	1	8.33
Computer Peripherals	24	2	8.33
Regional Airlines	12	1	8.33
Water Utilities	12	1	8.33
Air Delivery & Freight Services	13	1	7.69
Aerospace/Defense Products & Services	40	3	7.5
Regional - Midwest Banks	54	4	7.41
Electronics Wholesale	15	1	6.67

Here are the early industry leaders in percentage of stocks making new highs.

Today's Pivot Points

Floor		Woodie's		Camarilla		Demark
R3	1334.95	R2	1326.34	R4	1321.63	High	1314.59
R2	1325.56	R1	1320.85	R3	1317.32	Low	1298.92
R1	1319.28	P	1310.67	R2	1315.88
P	1309.89	S1	1305.18	R1	1314.45
S1	1303.61	S2	1295	S1	1311.57
S2	1294.22			S2	1310.14
S3	1287.94			S3	1308.7
				S4	1304.39

Tuesday Morning Update

If you set lines at the 10 day high and low, you have a range of about 34 points, meaning the middle is 17 points from the bottom, a 50% retracement. In this case it is a retracement of a down move, which is a good indication that we are probably entering a down trend here. "Down trend" could mean we are hav ing a 1-2% pullback, or it could mean a collapse of epic proportions, although with the current lack of distribution days (IBD says there are 3 on the SPX, I'll be damned if I see them), and epic collpase is highly unlikely. The leading sectors this morning are XLV and XLK, lagging are XLE and XLI. The Nasdaq is leading slightly, the Russell 2000 is lagging. I have oil and gold up, and treasury yields are schizophrenic - the 10 year down, the 30 year up.

I have 100 new highs so far, with breakouts in FUEL, MAT, TGI, CNL,  and GRA. I have reports from BIRT, down 3.5%, and MTH, down 10%.

Price Relative Scans

Here is the price relative scan for Monday: 2 200 day breakouts (Finviz screen here), no 100 day breakouts, 3 50 day breakouts (here), and 1 20 day breakout (here).

Monday New Highs

There were 98 new highs today, here is the list.

These are the top 10 industries in percentage of stocks making new highs:

Name	Stocks	NH	Pct
Auto Parts Stores	5	2	40
Office Supplies	4	1	25
Department Stores	9	2	22.22
Agricultural Chemicals	15	3	20
Home Furnishings & Fixtures	18	3	16.67
Recreational Vehicles	6	1	16.67
Sporting Activities	6	1	16.67
Water Utilities	12	2	16.67
Food Wholesale	7	1	14.29
Regional - Midwest Banks	54	7	12.96

These are the high volume advancers and decliners from the relative strength list:

Ticker	Relative Volume	Change		Ticker	Relative Volume	Change
JCP	2.15	0.94%		DCT	3.53	-3.66%
KOG	1.84	0.77%		CFX	3.02	-4.47%
MOH	1.53	1.49%		GCI	2.3	-6.90%
				JAZZ	2.11	-2.54%
				ACAT	2	-2.15%
				OCR	1.97	-0.57%
				LSI	1.67	-1.16%
				DDR	1.59	-1.78%
				TNH	1.57	-0.83%
				WPRT	1.52	-1.20%

I have one report after the close, BIRT, which is up 0.16% after hours.

The January That Wasn't Supposed To Happen

The market is getting unbelievably predictable, with another morning drop and a rally the rest of the day. The only real challenge is guessing which sector is going to lead the way up. The trouble is, once the market gets predictable, it has a tendency to change. I have been expecting a mild pullback, and so far that is what we are getting. Even more bullish is the fact that the market is closing well off the lows, which could be an indication the big money is buying. Also Bs that the market weakness is being accompanied by low volume, so no one is rushing for the exits.  Right now I am expecting a pullback to about 1220, and most likely a move up from there. We can only wait.

I had been bemoaning the weakness of the Nasdaq for months, but that weakness is done. Even with price dropping, price relative is rising.  Until price relative starts dropping, I would say it is safe to say we are not going to have a major correction, and the lack of distribution days indicates we won't have one for quite a while. This was definitely not the January I expected.

The price relative of the Dow industrials has stopped dropping. That is about the only bearish indication I have found. Seriously.

 

The Russell 2000 was a little weak today, and the price relative did drop a bit, but the up trend is intact. I suppose I could torture the pivot points to come up with a lower target price, but at this point I don't really see any point to it.

There is one day left in January, the month I expected, if not an epic collapse, at least something of a collapse. It did the exact opposite. I am sure glad I'm not like some other bloggers (who shall remain nameless) who won't admit they were wrong and stayed short the entire month. PPT, HFT, QE, or whatever the reason, I trade what the market does, not what it is supposed to do.

I will have the new highs update shortly.

TMP

Breakouts were few today, TMP being the one with highest relative volume.  This one looks like it is trying to bottom, and may have done so, although the 200dma is still descending it is likely to turn soon. However, with a volume "surge" of a little over 100k shares, this one may move up, but not very fast.

Today's Leading Industry

Here are the industries with 50% or more of their stocks advancing today.

Here are the industries with 10% or more of their stocks making new highs.

One of the more spectacular breakouts last week was JCP, whcih is one of 4 strong stocks in the 9 stock department stores group. While this is not yet a leading industry, and half of the stocks in the group look very weak, it is probably one to keep an eye on as a few look like they are ready to move up with the group. In particular, BONT is just now coming off a 52 week low and appears to be starting a new uptrend which may be good for a pretty hefty gain.

Market Leadership

Ticker	50-Day Simple Moving Average	52-Week High	Change	Shares Float	Insider Ownership	Insider Transactions	Institutional Ownership	Institutional Transactions	Float Short	Relative Volume
BWLD	0.74%	-7.72%	-1.89%	18.09	1.03%	-27.02%	87.95%	-0.62%	13.82%	0.88
CF	15.63%	-8.35%	-1.88%	65.16	0.41%	3.87%	98.43%	0.42%	2.98%	0.86
CBOU	20.08%	-2.36%	-0.88%	20.08	6.86%	-78.37%	69.03%	0.35%	11.48%	0.78
NVLS	18.21%	-4.90%	-1.89%	66.32	0.36%	4.34%	94.90%	1.00%	10.05%	0.65
HITK	2.82%	-10.88%	0.40%	10.19	14.34%	11.36%	65.84%	3.51%	11.10%	0.61
ULTA	9.17%	-3.82%	-0.92%	47.58	2.54%	-10.27%	73.62%	-0.39%	3.99%	0.59
FFIV	9.32%	-7.87%	-0.38%	78.78	0.44%	-12.55%	88.89%	-15.95%	3.04%	0.58
NANO	11.81%	-8.40%	-1.45%	20.49	4.26%	-23.99%	69.81%	-1.41%	7.02%	0.53
CMG	9.11%	-1.27%	-0.30%	30.77	0.57%	-5.31%		-0.10%	8.45%	0.46
AGP	14.39%	-8.91%	-0.89%	47.53	1.79%	-4.46%		-0.37%	12.14%	0.31
MELI	3.61%	-7.37%	-1.71%	30.46	0.08%	-95.13%	74.38%	0.06%	8.63%	0.22

Here is the new leadership list for this week. Notice none are geting higher than average volume, which is good; we wantt to see leaders declin eon low volume during market weakness. Anyhting with more than 10% of the float short is a potential short squeeze candidate, but none here are absurdly high. None are at new highs.

Here is a link to the charts.

Early Industry Leaders

Name	Stocks	NH	Pct
Auto Parts Stores	5	2	40
Department Stores	9	2	22.22
Recreational Vehicles	6	1	16.67
Food Wholesale	7	1	14.29
Agricultural Chemicals	15	2	13.33
Health Care Plans	17	2	11.76
Accident & Health Insurance	9	1	11.11
Home Furnishings & Fixtures	18	2	11.11
Sporting Goods	10	1	10
Broadcasting - Radio	11	1	9.09
REIT - Healthcare Facilities	11	1	9.09
Water Utilities	12	1	8.33
Industrial Equipment Wholesale	13	1	7.69
Insurance Brokers	13	1	7.69
Mortgage Investment	17	1	5.88
Regional - Midwest Banks	54	3	5.56
Paper & Paper Products	20	1	5
Wireless Communications	42	2	4.76
Trucking	23	1	4.35
Diversified Electronics	50	2	4
REIT - Residential	26	1	3.85
Rental & Leasing Services	26	1	3.85
Regional - Pacific Banks	56	2	3.57
Credit Services	34	1	2.94
Specialty Retail, Other	34	1	2.94
Biotechnology	172	5	2.91
REIT - Diversified	37	1	2.7
Regional - Southeast Banks	41	1	2.44
Industrial Electrical Equipment	49	1	2.04

Here are the early industry leaders in percentage of stocks making new highs.