Minggu, 04 Maret 2012

Earnings Growth Charts

I had 9 stocks from the earnings list reporting last week, and picked the 5 graphs most of interest. In the top panel the red line is quarterly EPS growth rate, black is quarterly revenue growth rate. In the middle the red line is quarterly EPS, black is price, green is revenue, and blue price relative to SPX. All of these reported the end of a fiscal year, so the large red bars are annual EPS. At the bottom the blsckbars are volume.

ABVT reported a quarter of accelerating growth, but annual EPS did not grow much, and is still down from where it was tow years ago, but price has been responding pretty well. The market may be anticipating higher growth in the future, or this is badly overpriced. Revenue growth has been pretty steady, so it os probably the former.



We have seen many of the school stocks collapse first in price, then in earnings. APEI has yet to collapse in earnings and the annual growth rate is very consistent. If this keeps up this will get out of the trading range it has been stuck in for years.



I put DIN on the list when it had a burst of high growth coming off the 2009 bottom, but have had misgivings about it ever since. It has had pretty consistent, if somewhat slow, annual growth but that appears to be slowing down. Revenue is also not growing, so this really isn't what I am looking for.


VIT may be one of the few that has been on the list since it's inception. It was showing high growth potential back in 2008, and had a big run into 2011. It then collapsed  and is now nearly back to where it started, and now we see why: the growth cycle has stopped. If the growth cycle reusmes this is vastly under priced, but if it doesn't this is likely to languish for a long time.




ZAGG is what I am looking for: high earnings and revenue growth, and, with a recent pullback, probably under priced. This one got enough volume when it was at the highs to make it on the leadership list, but that volume also made it pretty volatile. This might be an ideal time to get a small position in it and hold it for a few months.




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