I now count 5 distribution days since January 1st, although some of those are marginal, but it now looks like we may have hit at least a short term top. Seasonally it is probably about time for a correction, and the big boys appear to be waiting for a better price before adding more positions. Although the distribution day count is now fairly high, I don't really see evidence of big money selling, and CMF has dropped, but modestly and from nosebleed levels. We may be in for a month or two of relative weakness, but ultimately we are probably going to have another leg up, but then, I don't worry about that until it gets here.
The uptrend in price relative looks like it has been stopped cold on the Nasdaq, which had a particularly nasty day today. However, today it did not rack up a distribution day and I count 4 here, cause for concern but no reason to panic. CMF has made a slightly more substantial drop here, and there p[robably is mpore big money selling going on here.
Price relative on the Dow industrials has done an abrupt reversal, with a big two day move up. If this continues, we are headed for a correction. It is too early to tell if this will continue, but I suspect it will.
The Russell 2000, which was leading with the Nasdaq early on, did the opposite: it gained strength and finished positive on the day. Whether this was a one day wonder or a reversal is too early to tell, but it is notable that the 50dma provided support. It is also notable that this is the only one that needed to find support at the 50, none of the others are even close.
It looks like we are headed into a correction (the Russell looks like it is already in one), but so far there is no indication it will be anything more than a pullback in a longer term bullish move. I will be watching volume on the way down to see if it picks up.
I will have the new highs update shortly.
