Price Relative Scans

Here is the price relative scan for Wednesday: 1 200 day breakout (Finviz screen here), no 100 day breakouts, 1 50 day breakout (here), and 9 20 day breakouts (here).

Wednesday New Highs

There were 166 new highs today, here is the list.

These are the top 10 industries in percentage of stocks making new highs:

Name	Stocks	NH	Pct
Cigarettes	7	5	71.43
Personal Computers	2	1	50
Cleaning Products	5	2	40
Diversified Computer Systems	5	2	40
Department Stores	9	3	33.33
Foreign Utilities	3	1	33.33
Medical Practitioners	3	1	33.33
Major Integrated Oil & Gas	16	4	25
Beverages - Brewers	9	2	22.22
Confectioners	5	1	20
Home Improvement Stores	5	1	20

These are the high volume advancers and decliners from  the relative strenght list. BDCO, which is on the list, de-listed today, so if you see it on the list the rest of this week it is because I forgot to remove it.

Ticker	Relative Volume	Change		Ticker	Relative Volume	Change
USHS	4.45	7.48%		CFX	6.91	-1.45%
VVUS	3.75	5.83%		LIZ	3.64	-5.87%
CALL	3.35	4.75%		FSM	3.19	-4.76%
RYL	1.57	2.60%		KOG	2.81	-6.10%
				CYS	2.53	-0.44%
				MHR	2.21	-7.11%
				COCO	2.11	-3.44%
				WPRT	2.03	-5.88%
				CLNE	1.91	-3.14%
				GPS	1.89	-1.48%
				FSYS	1.89	-4.78%
				AXL	1.79	-6.41%
				LAD	1.57	-5.67%
				JCP	1.55	-4.21%

I actually have nothing scheduled to report after the close.

Live By Bernanke, Die By Bernanke

I think we found out what would stop this rally today: Bernanke opened his mouth. He gave whatever report he is supposed to give to Congress today, and as soon as he started speaking, the market, which had been off to a fast start, collapsed. One signal we got today was a rise to 1378, where the market stoipped and refused to go higher. Apparently we have found resistance. We also found sellers today, and the volume was quite high. Chalk up some distribution.

It's funny how the market becomes fixated on round numbers. The Nasdaq went up to 3000, then stopped cold. That is just below where I have the target projection, but that could be interpreted in about a million ways, so I'm not convinced this isn't the top. The market has been over bought for quite some time, and it is overdue for a decent drop.

The other big signal we are getting is the weakness of the Russell 2000. For the third time since this topped, it is flashing the Elder impulse sell signal, and I would not bet that this is a false alarm. A correction, if not imminent, is coming.

Ticker	Relative Strength Index (14)
XLK	77.58
XLY	70.93
XLP	67.21
XLF	62.16
XLE	60.23
XLI	60.16
XLV	56.74
XLB	51.83
XLU	44.25

Here are the sectors ranked by RSI. What is surprising is that there is very little change from last week.

XLK, despite being massively overbought and having a rough day today, is still in first place, is still overbought, and very likely to be leading next week. Even if we go into a correction, this one really has to drop to give the other sectors any chance of taking the lead.

XLU is still in last place. I thought we would be seeing some rotation into here, but I don;t see it. It is getting relatively weaker despite being the weakest sector. On the positive side, this doesn't normally drop very fast when it drops.

We have been getting warnings for a couple of weeks now, which have been, up to now, safe to ignore. This one, however, is much more serious, as we got a big reversal off a very positive open. Justice, however, may have been served today: Bernanke started this rally by opening his mouth, and he may have just ended it the same way.

I will have the new highs update shortly.

CPRT

There are several criteria that O'Neil looks at before considering a buy: technically you want a sound base, and fundamentally you want growing earnings. You also want to be ina strong industry, and CPRT is in auto dealerships, which has been fairly strong lately. Most importantly, you want a stock with high relative strength. The trouble is, after a strong market rally that has gone on for months , any stock forming a base at this point is going to have low relative strength. Everything about this chart looks ok except for the horribly weak price relative line, and that may be telling us that the market rally is getting old.

EXLS

EXLS is an example of something getting pretty typical lately: a deep base and a very weak price relative line. We have to be getting close to a top.

Today's Leading Industry

 Here are the industries with 60% or more of their stocks advancing today.

Here are the industries with 20% or more of their stocks making new highs.

When you have a group leading both lists, you know you have found some strength.Cigarettes has the same number of stocks advancing as making new highs, but oddly enough they are not all the same stocks. BTI and PM have dropped after making new highs, but 3 others are still advancing. VGR is also advancing and is close to a new high. The only relatively weak stock in the group is CIGX, and it is also the most volatile.  This group is generally strong in strong markets, but on a relative basis is even stronger in weak markets. This could be telling us we are going to have some weakness coming.

Market Leadership

Ticker	50-Day Simple Moving Average	52-Week High	Relative Strength Index (14)	Change	Change from Open	Gap	Relative Volume
USHS	60.54%	5.08%	80.61	5.80%	5.24%	0.53%	5.19
TNH	23.65%	-1.69%	73.8	-0.32%	-2.21%	1.93%	3.37
AAPL	21.86%	1.68%	86.71	1.68%	0.56%	1.11%	2.58
MHS	12.34%	-0.47%	74.14	0.65%	1.22%	-0.56%	1.99
BIG	10.59%	0.70%	69.06	1.08%	0.97%	0.11%	1.66
CSTR	19.44%	-4.91%	65.65	-3.96%	-1.55%	-2.45%	1.5
CF	12.53%	-3.28%	62.56	-1.31%	-1.88%	0.59%	1.31
TCAP	1.89%	-3.06%	53.62	-0.51%	-0.86%	0.36%	1.19
RGR	9.54%	-9.25%	53.96	-1.42%	-1.79%	0.37%	1.15
ATW	10.22%	-1.86%	64.63	0.10%	0.06%	0.04%	0.87
CMG	8.90%	-0.41%	75.22	-0.31%	-0.04%	-0.27%	0.73
CBOU	5.04%	-10.22%	48	0.24%	-1.18%	1.44%	0.73
MELI	12.31%	-4.40%	63.87	-1.19%	-2.04%	0.87%	0.61
SYNA	10.54%	-4.59%	59.8	-0.52%	-0.10%	-0.42%	0.57
AGP	3.65%	-9.63%	52.67	0.18%	-0.10%	0.28%	0.54
SWI	17.46%	-4.65%	63.63	-1.17%	-0.52%	-0.65%	0.51
MDCO	9.06%	-4.56%	61.35	-0.68%	-1.09%	0.41%	0.51
FTNT	17.49%	-4.55%	67.46	-0.51%	-0.26%	-0.26%	0.47
FFIV	8.58%	-2.96%	59.12	-0.48%	-0.64%	0.17%	0.43
LULU	15.36%	-0.09%	76.58	0.06%	0.03%	0.03%	0.4

Yesterday I was ready to pull the trigger on a short of USHS, but the voive of William O'Neil was in my head telling me to wait for confirmation. I should have done the opposite of what my inclination was because it is breaking out yet again today, still getting high volume, and is now in nosebleed territory. It will come down some day, just not today. AAPL is doing much the same just not in quite as dramatic a move. TNH is also breaking out today, I believe they reported last week. Besides those, the other new highs are MHS, BIG, and LULU.

Here is a link to the charts.

Breakouts

Here are this morning's top 6 relative volume breakouts. All but TNH are on earnings.

Early Industry Leaders

Name	Stocks	NH	Pct
Cigarettes	7	5	71.43
Personal Computers	2	1	50
Diversified Computer Systems	5	2	40
Department Stores	9	3	33.33
Foreign Utilities	3	1	33.33
Medical Practitioners	3	1	33.33
Major Integrated Oil & Gas	16	4	25
Beverages - Brewers	9	2	22.22
Cleaning Products	5	1	20
Confectioners	5	1	20
Discount, Variety Stores	11	2	18.18
Home Furnishing Stores	6	1	16.67
Personal Products	18	3	16.67
Air Services, Other	7	1	14.29
Beverages - Wineries & Distillers	7	1	14.29
Drugs - Generic	14	2	14.29
Jewelry Stores	7	1	14.29
Toys & Games	7	1	14.29
Textile - Apparel Clothing	29	4	13.79
Agricultural Chemicals	15	2	13.33
Machine Tools & Accessories	8	1	12.5
Drug Stores	9	1	11.11
Oil & Gas Pipelines	37	4	10.81
Beverages - Soft Drinks	19	2	10.53
Paper & Paper Products	19	2	10.53
Security Software & Services	10	1	10
Telecom Services - Domestic	20	2	10

Here are the early industry leaders in percentage of stocks making new highs.

Today's Pivot Points

Floor		Woodie's		Camarilla		Demark
R3	1381.98	R2	1377.98	R4	1376.1	High	1372.64
R2	1377.53	R1	1375.74	R3	1374.14	Low	1365.52
R1	1374.86	P	1370.86	R2	1373.49
P	1370.41	S1	1368.62	R1	1372.83
S1	1367.74	S2	1363.74	S1	1371.53
S2	1363.29			S2	1370.87
S3	1360.62			S3	1370.22
				S4	1368.26

Wednesday Morning Update

The market is starting to make a mockery of chart analysis. 1370 did not last long as a resistance level, 1375 fell this morning, and now I am looking at 1378 as a possible resistance level, which so far has held. The headlines are all screaming about GDP, the first revision of which came in this morning at 3%. I guess that's considered good, but considering how much deficit spending the government is doing, I would expect more like 30%. For the government to blow through that much money and only come up with 3% is no cause for celebration in my book, but then again, I am not the market. The big leader today is XLF, lagging are XLU and XLB. The Nasdaq and Russell 2000 are both about even. Oil is up, gold down, treasury yields up.

I have 103 new highs so far with breakouts in: CERS, GEVA, EXLS, VRSK, CRI, TNH, GPX, LUX, and PKG. Reporting last night were APEI down 1.7%, EXAC up 8.1%, and KOG down 7.7%. Reporting this morning was LIZ (I thought they reported last month) down 5.2%.  I had TIVO scheduled but it looks like they actually reported last week.

Price Relative Scans

Here is the price relative scan for Tuesday: the only breakouts I have are 7 20 day breakouts (Finviz screen here). I haven't been doing this long enough to know what that means, but I am sure it means something.

Tuesday New Highs

There were 172 new highs today, here is the list.

These are the top 10 industries in percentage of stocks making new highs:

Name	Stocks	NH	Pct
Medical Practitioners	3	2	66.67
Personal Computers	2	1	50
Beverages - Brewers	9	4	44.44
Auto Parts Stores	5	2	40
Diversified Computer Systems	5	2	40
Foreign Utilities	3	1	33.33
Cigarettes	7	2	28.57
General Entertainment	8	2	25
Office Supplies	4	1	25
Department Stores	9	2	22.22

These are the high volume advancers and decliners form the relative strength list:

Advancers				Decliners
Ticker	Relative Volume	Change		Ticker	Relative Volume	Change
FSM	2.93	5.60%		BDCO	6.4	-7.20%
LAD	2.67	6.78%		VVUS	4.54	-10.60%
KTCC	2.38	9.62%		CLNE	3.74	-3.63%
USHS	2.33	2.74%		COCO	2.27	-4.71%
MGM	1.99	2.63%		TIVO	1.85	-2.29%
MHR	1.67	2.90%		THLD	1.84	-11.01%
LIZ	1.55	0.87%		FTK	1.69	-3.39%
				JIVE	1.67	-1.29%
				SPPI	1.6	-3.68%

After the close I have reports from KOG, down 6% after hours, APEI, up 6.9%, and EXAC, not trading.

Oil Takes A Rest

The target for the SPX is about 1377, and we are getting very close, and also getting to the point wher the indicators are showing some weakness coming. MACD is starting to drop, RSI is getting overbought and will likely pull in again, and price is about as far above the 200dema as it was below it in October. It is likely we will have a pullback soon, but with no distribution showing up, it won;t last long. 

 Crude oil found a resistance level at 109 and pulled back. That may be marking the midpoint of a new trading range, the top of which is about 115.It may come back to 103, and if it holds there, watch for a big move up.

Gold isn't waiting for oil: it broke out of it's range last week, came back to test the breakout point and movedd out today. If anything, gold is now proving that the correction it went through is in fact over, and it is headed for a retest of the previous high. That may take a few weeks, if not months, but there is plenty of room for gain in between.

This is getting absurd. 5 days up, 5 days down. I guess you could make something off this if you were heavily leveraged, otherwise there is no point. 

The US Dollar is now at the bottom of a range between, roughly, 78 and 82, and I strongly suspect will not go below the 200dma without some major intervention by the Fed. UUP was down today, so this probably was as well, but UUP stinks as an index tracking ETF (otherwise I would use that chart). Thn market used to follow this tick for tick, and even though it isn't now, the rally really did not kick it into gear until this started dropping. We will probably get a chance to see if it can continue with this going up.

Oil is taking a pause, now that it is in the headlines. Once the news moves on to something else, watch ffor it to start moving up again. The market may rally with it, but only for so long.

I will have the new highs update shortly.

AAPL

AAPL just emerged from a late stage base, is going through a long term decline in column, and price relative was pretty flat, leading me to the conclusion it was no longer a leading stock. Even on the last breakout it formed the dreaded black candle, an indication to me it was going to have a tough time going higher. So, what has it done since? Gone straight up. The breakout in price relative about February 9 should have alerted me that this was emerging, but I didn't pay any attention. This will be an interesting test of the pivot point projection target system: for simpliciotie's sake I will call the lower pivot 445, the middle pivot 526. 526-445=81. 526+81= 607. Sounds a little far fetched, but I bet it makes it.

DPZ

The pizza rally, which was dormant for a while, seems to be resuming. What is most striking about DPZ is how weak the price relative line is: the new high is almost 10% above the old high, but price relative failed to get to a new high. There is no pizza industry group, but the other tow pizza stocks are easy to remember: PZZA and PZZI. I will be watching those to see if they follow.

Today's Leading Industry

These are the industries with 70% or more of their stocks advancing today.

 These are the industries with 10% or more of their stocks making new highs.

There are a few leading groups in the advancing category, but few in the new highs category, and the only group common to the list is semi-conductor - memory chips, a 9 stock group that in no way can be considered leading. The is one of 5 semi-conductor groups on Finviz, so we may have a problem with some stocks being misclassified. There is also a problem, apparently, with the new highs list: it says one stock in this group hit a new high, but looking at the charts, I don't see it. There is only one really strong stock in this group, ISSI, which is near a new high, but nothing else is even close. I will see if I can find out why one of these came up as a new high.

EDIT: SNDK was on the new highs list when I downloaded it, but it is not there now. It was an apparent momentary error at Finviz.

Market Leadership

Ticker	50-Day Simple Moving Average	52-Week High	Relative Strength Index (14)	Change	Change from Open	Gap	Relative Volume
USHS	54.77%	-0.30%	77.5	3.13%	2.41%	0.71%	2.48
AAPL	20.41%	1.07%	84.91	1.60%	1.23%	0.37%	1.57
MHS	12.41%	-0.83%	73.62	1.97%	2.06%	-0.09%	1.55
CSTR	25.21%	2.01%	78.84	2.77%	2.43%	0.33%	1.5
CF	15.76%	0.56%	67.47	2.08%	1.87%	0.20%	1.47
RGR	12.29%	-7.50%	58.26	-0.67%	-0.74%	0.07%	1.43
ATW	11.16%	-1.47%	65.64	2.40%	1.09%	1.30%	1.31
TCAP	2.47%	-2.67%	56.69	-0.30%	-0.20%	-0.10%	1.12
TNH	24.22%	-2.06%	73.23	3.24%	2.57%	0.65%	1
FTNT	17.63%	-4.87%	68.25	1.08%	0.44%	0.63%	0.99
AGP	3.88%	-9.82%	51.96	-0.44%	-0.38%	-0.06%	0.93
MELI	14.91%	-2.50%	70.05	-0.84%	-0.93%	0.10%	0.91
SYNA	12.55%	-1.78%	65.12	-1.10%	-1.41%	0.31%	0.9
BIG	9.22%	-0.92%	65.1	0.43%	0.23%	0.21%	0.84
CMG	8.94%	-0.26%	76.47	0.13%	-0.06%	0.18%	0.61
MDCO	10.27%	-3.77%	63.81	0.05%	0.46%	-0.41%	0.55
CBOU	6.65%	-9.25%	50.22	0.96%	0.96%	0.00%	0.54
FFIV	9.63%	-2.40%	61.7	-0.90%	-1.07%	0.17%	0.48
LULU	16.23%	0.24%	76.19	0.56%	0.85%	-0.28%	0.46
SWI	19.39%	-3.65%	66.74	-0.39%	-0.70%	0.31%	0.35

USHS is getting the bounce I was looking for, and volume is dropping, so I may be going short on it. Several are now at new highs - AAPL, CSTR, CF, SYNA, and LULU, but none are getting really high volume. None are making especially big moves today, volume isn't bad but not really high ether.

Here is a link to the charts.