Here is the unannotated chart to show how we are progressing with the monthly pivot points. Strangely, the pivots are almost exactly on the support and resistance lines I have been drawing here (actually each is about 5 points higher). In any case, a break above 1375 would be a major bullish development, provided it comes on volume, which is again disappearing. Nobody wants to buy up here, and who can blame them, but we still are not seeing distribution, and until we do it is very unlikely we atre going to reverse course and drop in any meaningful way.
I put the "big picture" pivot points on the weekly chart. We are now right at the top of a 2 year range, and very likely to see some weakness coming up, but again, I would be very surprised to see us go below the horizontal blue line, if it even goes that far.
The Nasdaq has broken out of that range and, if my fibonacci system has anything to it at all, are very likely to get as far as 3500 before the next big correction. That would more or less square with the thesis that we are in wave 5 off the 2009 bottom (I am no expert on Elliot Wave, so that is probably an oversimplification). It also means we are probably in for several more months of rallying before we see a really big correction.
The Russell 2000 is not quite supporting that thesis, as it has run into resistance below the topp of the range, and is lagging again. However, if this was a stock chart, it would be forming a bullish handle pattern. I don't suppose that applies to index charts, especially when it is diverging with the other indexes.
One reason for the divergence is probably crude oil, which broke past resistance at 103 and looks like it will possibly take out the old high within a couple of weeks. This is starting to get reminiscent of 2008, when the market rallied with oil up to a point, then said "no mas". The problem is, no one knows where that point is.
Gold os lagging a bit, but finally started to move this week. Again, if this was a stock chart I would be all over it. Looking at this chart, you have to call "BS" on the Fed's "inflation expectations are low" mantra.
The mnarket appears to be stopping for now, and we may have a nominal correction for the next few weeks, but I don't see anything major coming. From a technical perspective, I would have to say that the trend is still up. I don't want to make a time prediction here, but I strongly suspect we have a good 2 or 3 months before we see any major change in trend, and it could be longer than that. That, however, can change at any time.
I will have the new highs update shortly.
