We continue the slow march up, with any thought that 1344 might have been a top quashed after the first hour of trading today. Now I am looking at 1377 as the next target, and this one might be a lot tougher to get through, just on the basis of another day of shrinking volume. The sellers have not shown up for a long while, but the buyers appear to be dwindling as well, and with the market not even having a significant down day in over a month, you would have to be a bit crazy to be buying here. However, all indications are still bullish, nothing has changed that.
Crude oil has been doing a whole lot of nothing, until today. Whether the low it established on Friday is a new support level remains to be seen, but 100 is now the critical level to watch. The lack of movement here since the beginnig of January may have a whole lot to do with the market's relentless rally, but if this starts moving back up over 100, look for the market to slow down.
Gold just executed a nearly perfect overbought pullback, and has turned sharply back up and will likely make a pretty big mnove before hitting overbought again. Note that MACD on WTI is reversing up: here is is reversing down. Why the two are so divergent right now I don't know, but neither seem to be tracking the dollar very closely.
Last week the yield ont eh 10 year treasury made a huge drop, so naturally this week it made a huge rise. if it follows the pattern, it should be a lot lower next week. This thing is being tortured to death by the Fed and is no longer much help to us.
I usually look at the dollar index, which doesn't get updated until after i get the charts, but UUP, which is a much messier chart, broke down below support today, and it's a good bet that the dollar did as well. This will have a positive effect on stocks, although for whatever reason the commodities (XLB and XLE) and multinational industrials (XLI) didn't get much help from this today.
The rally moves along, but may be running out of steam. I would not be getting out yet, as we need to see at least some distribution before breaking a sweat, but I'm not too sure about taking new positions here.
I will have the new highs update shortly
