Distribution Day? Not So Fast

I post 6 month charts normally, for readability, but would like to say I always use the one year charts for analysis. I would like to say that, but can't because I am usually too pressed for time and/or lazy to actually looke at the one year charts. Here on the one year chart for the SPX, it becomes pretty apparent why we are hitting resistance at 1354.  It also becomes pretty apparent where the pivot points are. We are right about on schedule for a more than minor pullback, and the technical indicators sre telling us the upside momentum is disappearing, but we have no signs of distribution (I'm not going to rail about the PPT induced last second rally that avoided a distribution day today, conveniently masking the selling going on by TPTB today). We could be in for another nominal 3 or 4 day pullback, but I suspect we might get a little more than that, but I don't think we are ready yet for a full blown correction.

Here is the one year chart for crude oil. Boy, doesn't 103 look like a powerful resistance level now.  95 looks like luke warm support, but 93 looks pretty strong. That puts 100 right about in the middle, and we have been hovering there for a few months now. The fact that this hasn't risen with the market lately is a little odd, especially with the geo-political uncertainty, but MACD looks like it wants to reverse. We could see this try to break out sometime in the near future.

Gold is in a medium term down trend, but this does have the looks of a base, the right side of which might be forming now.  This little handle formation it is forming right now is fairly bullish, but it needs to start moving up real soon. This is also sensitive to geo-political uncertainty, which we will probably have plenty of in the coming months.

The yield on the 10 year is either carving out a bottom here, or is about to make another big move down, Since I think the latter is pretty unlikely, that means that, technically, this should begin moving up. Bernanke can't afford to let that happen.

The two prior highs in the dollar index mark two pivot points which, if you project a downward target, point to about 78, which is just about where the 200dema is. It is a pretty good bet that that will mark a short teerm bottom, and MACD wants to reverse, so that seems to bear it out.

We seem to be heading for a top somewhere in here, if we haven't hit it already. One what time frame I don't know, but the market does seems to want to pull back a bit before it is willing to go higher.

I will have the new highs update shortly.