Minggu, 05 Februari 2012

Earnings Growth Charts

I had 15 stocks from the earnings list reporting this week, with 6 reporting accelerating growth, so those are the ones I graphed. I will try to get to the other graphs later in the quarter when earnings reports slow down. In the top panel, the red line is quarterly EPS growth rate, black is quarterly revenue growth rate. In the middle, the red line is quarterly EPS, black is price, green quarterly revenue, blue price relative to SPX. If the stock is reporting the end of a fiscal year, the large red bars are annual EPS. At the bottom the black bars are volume.


CATM is first up. It is one I have been watching for about 3 quarters now, as it has been in a monster up trend for about 4 years now. EPS is starting to slow down, but growth is still at a pretty healthy rate. This is probably overdue for a base forming period, but is the growth it has been experiencing continues, any base will be relatively short. I don't really expect this growth rate to be sustained, but it has don it for 4 years now, so I could very well be wrong.


I believe CTCT is one of the stocks I added this quarter, so this is the first time i have seen this chart with price added to it. This one has very inconsistent quarterly earnings but pretty consistent annual earnings. Price seems to be following the quarterly earnings, but is probably not as dramatic as it looks since these are linear charts. Revenue growth rate has been in a steady down trend, so this is probably going to be range bound for quite a while.


HWKN is coming off a quarter of negative growth, so getting accelerating growth this quarter is not saying that much. This is a classic CAN SLIM stock in the very early stages of a growth cycle, but is currently in a slowdown, and is forming a long base. I don;t know what the odds are of this becoming a monster winner in the coming years, but they probably are not high, but so far, it is exhibiting the traits of a stock that is going to become a multi-year leader.


ININ went through a decent growth spurt in the last 3 years, but is slowing down and has lapsed into a pretty deep base. That base appears to have bottomed and it looks like it is building the right side.EPS growth is quite slow right now, but revenue growth still looks ok, albeit also slowing. I am not counting on this one being a growth leader any time soon.


Something is wrong with IVC. Looking at the earnings release, you see "adjusted" (non-GAAP) earnings were pretty good, but on a GAAP basis this took a big loss this quarter. In this case it appears the market is not buying the non-GAAP numbers. This one doesn't pass the smell test and may not make it on the next cut.

OYOG is on a long base, and price is following bit earnings and revenue pretty closely. With both rising this quarter, price likely will as well, and we can see that it is forming the right side of that base. Long term I really have no opinion on this one, but if it eventually breaks out of this base, it could become a major leader.
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