I put up the new pivot points for February, mainly to see if they change later on, but they are remarkably close to the support/resistance lines I have drawn. R1, near what is now the middle point of my range, was broken today, meaning we are likely to test R2 (which is near the top of my range). Last month the market seemed to ignore the pivot points, so they may not be all that important this month, but historically they are pretty decent indications of ultimate tops and bottoms for the month. IIf that is the case, then we have a pretty good chance of hitting 1376 this month.
I won't rehash the NFP numbers today, Mish and Denninger do a much better job than I do at that, but it doesn't matter anyway, the market buys it so we have no choice but to go along with it. Here we see that the SPX is aproaching the 2011 high, and it appears we should get the momentum and volume to do it. Elliot wavers may recognize this as the middle of a wave 5 up; Elliot wave theory is a little too murky for me, but it does appear to make sense here.
The Nasdaq passed the 2011 high this week, on volume and with building momentum. Speaking of Elliot wave, this should turn even Prechter bullish.
The Dow industrials are also gettting close to a breakout, but on diminishing momentum. I have made the point several times: a lagging Dow is bullish.
The only thing remotely bearish I see right now is a slightly lagging Dow transports. "Remotely" is about right, the bulls probably aren't sweating this.
Here's a good reason not to: the Russell 2000 kicked butt and took names this week, and are beginning to assert at least some leadership. At this point it looks like a cinch to get it to a new high.
Bull markets are strange things: they know they are being BS'ed by TPTB, but they don't care. The market is playing along with Bernanke's "low rates until doomsday" game for now, but there will come a day when it decides to stop. Until then, impatient bears are going to be skinned alive.
I will have the new highs update shortly.
