Minggu, 29 Januari 2012

Earnings Growth Charts

I had 9 stocks from the earnings list reporting last week, and chose the 5 most of interest to graph. In the top panel, the red line is quarterly EPS growth rate, black is quarterly revenue growth rate. In the middle, the red line is quarterly EPS, the green line is quarterly revenue, the black line is price, and the blue is price relative to the SPX. If the stock is reporting the end of a fiscal year, the large red bars are annual EPS. At the bottom the black bars are volume.

AHGP reported a quarter of decelerating growth, but has very consistent annual growth over the last 5 years. It is now forming a base (I believe this would be a second stage base), and the ideal scenario here would be a handle that lsts anywhere from a week to a month, with a slight price deline and a rising price relative line. Cup and handle patterns lately have been less than ideal, but we could get a good one here. This does not get the volume to be considered a leading stock, but that could change if it begins another move up. Long term I think this one has pretty good prospects.

IGTE also reported a quarter of decelerating earnings, which may slow the recent straight up move it has made That move came off a 50% retracememt of the big move it made off the 2009 low. Earnings growth has slowed down quite a bit (the big jump in revenue this quarter was due to an acquisition they made), and this will probably start forming a real (not v shaped) base here.


NEI is new on the list this quarter, and this is the first time I graphed it with price data included. While the down trend it is in looks pretty frightening here, this is a linear chart: it doesn't look quite as bad on a log scale. It is going through some high growth right now, but that is coming off essentially zero, so that isn't saying much. We will really need to watch this for a couple of quarters before coming to any conclusions.
SYNA reported accelerating growth, and staged another breakout last week. This is still off it's 5 year high but is now among the leading stocks (it didn't make the list this week, but it likely will be on it in coming weeks). One word of caution: this is growing EPS on declining revenue. That situation won't last long.


VLTR also reported accelerating growth, and also staged a breakout move, this one hitting a new 5 year high. This one is showing signs of slowing growth, but the market may be anticipating a resumption of the high growth in the near future. This is also an early stage base that could be the beginning of a big long term move.

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