It seems we may be finding a resistance level here, and at least it seems to fit the chart. The trouble is, there is no distribution: I count zero distribution days and it is highly unlikely we will even remotely have anything like a top until we get at least 3. So, it may be that we are in for a minor pullback, minor being anything from half an hour to a couple of days. The uptrend is weakening, at least looking at the MACD histogram (which I have fount to be pretty reliable) but it is not weakening by much, and is certainly not high enough to be considered overbought. So for now I hold my nose and remain bullish.
One thing I was bullish about last week was WTI, which, of course, went nowhere. It did, however, stay above the 50dma, and above the mid point of it's current trading range, and I remain bullish.
I was not terribly bullish on gold, so of course it went up. It is now finding another resistance level, and I remain bearish, at least in the short term. Long term this appears to be building the right side of a long base, and is several weeks, if not months, from retesting the old high. When it does, I suspect we are in for another big move up. But that is too far in the future for me to worry about now.
The yield on the 10 year treasury made something of a move this week: not much, but compared to what it has been doing lately it was a big move. This appears to be finishing the bottoming process and may start moving up. Let's hope for Bernanke's sake it is a controlled move. Ah, hell, who cares about Bernanke?
Here is the un-updated dollar index chart, which has a nice neat pattern, as opposed to the UUP chart, which is a frightful mess. The UUP went up marginally today, so this probably did as well, and if so it is poised to bounce right off support and head higher. Again, for Bernanke's sake, any ascent here also needs to be controlled, as opposed to the skyrocketing it will do in the event of a major financial catastrophe, many of which could occur any day now.
The market appears to be running oout of steam, at least temporarily, and may be pulling back here. As the lack of distribution attests, it is highly unlikely we are going to see a major drop, and right now the most likely scenario is a 1-2% pullback before it moves higher. We do have an FOMC decision tomorrow, but lately the market has pretty much ignored them. We are also in the heart of earnings season, so that could change the complexion of the market, but so far, it is not showing up yet,
I will have the new highs update shortly.
