I thought we had a really good chance to get through 1300 this morning, but I forgot about the resistance at 1292. Despite a fairly sizable move up, the market still looks like it is in a holding pattern, with very little upward momentum. MACD is still rising, but MACD histogram is flattening and may be about to reverse. The market is just slowly grinding up, probably chewing up the shorts as it goes. So far, nothing has changed the likelyhood of a 1307 target.
Crude oil came right into resistance at 103 and dropped, but not much. Expect this to remain high as the situation in Iran is unsettled. We could see it drop back to 92, but probably only for very short periods.
Gold is getting a nice bounce off the bottom, but so far it is only a bounce. However, the bottom it just put in may hold for quite a while, and if this breaks back above the 50dema, this should start building the right side of a very long base. Long term the trend here is still up, but short term it still has a lot of work to do.
I could have put up last week's chart of the 10 year yield. This is going exactly nowhere, which strongly suggests the bond market is not so optimistic as the equities market. When the two markets disagree, these guys are almost always right.
The dollar index chart has not been updated yet, but the UUP chart had a very small drop, so I expect the same here. This is slowly working it's way up, which is good, as a rapid rise will result in a horrifying drop in equities. A slowly rising dollar will not be conducive to a rally by any means, but ultimately, will be good for those who have them. Unfortunately for those in debt up to their eyeballs (such as the US Treasury), it's not so good. Expect Bernanke to try to stop this rise, if he can, which is no becoming doubtful.
I will have the new highs update shortly.
